THE NISGS 01 (2015)

The reason of hydrocarbons price fall is related to a supply increase induced by a rise in global oil production capacity, particularly the one the US, which has known unprecedented growth in shale oil production, the return of Iraqi and Libyan markets, new discoveries of offshore oil in the eastern Mediterranean, the arrival on the market of African new producers (eg Mozambique) and a decrease in global demand, particularly the one of China.

The whole market relied principally on OPEC to restore balance and stop the prices fall, especially in Saudi Arabia for reducing its production. All the more since Saudi leaders don’t ignore that their country will suffer, like the other OPEC exporting countries, because of disastrous repercussions of their strategy.

What are the reasons? Some ones talked about an agreement between Washington and Riyadh to prevail over Russians and Iranians, so that compelling them to negotiate, for the firsts, regard to the Ukrainian problem and, for the seconds, to the nuclear file. Others rather observe the Saudi Arabia will, on the one hand, to defend its market shares and repossess control on world oil production, and, on the other hand, to maintain its incomes in a medium-term by supporting investments of unconventional oil producers of high production cost.

It could be also that the Saudi Arabia acted for its own behalf in order to maintain its market shares by eradicating the American ambition to be free from their dependence regard to its oil. If such a scenario were to achieve - the USA becoming not only self-sufficient but also oil exporters in 2018-2019 - the effects on Saudi Arabia would be catastrophic, as well as the pact of Quincy would become lapsed.

As concerns Algeria, it is greatly dependent on its incomes of hydrocarbon exports. It knows a situation of extreme vulnerability, threatened by an "external clash" and internal tensions, which may compromise its sustainability as a nation state. The income persistence, as the main revenue form, is a blocking factor, which annihilate any attempt to be free. To sum up, the crisis is systemic finding its source from the failure of this growth model that is built on the hypothesis of a possible income conversion from income (oil / gas) into social-economic growth factors.